IX.03.2019 - The Science & Psychology of Mid-Points
I haven’t been an avid sports fan since the National Hockey League had six teams — Montréal Canadiens, Toronto Maple Leafs, Boston Bruins, Detroit Red Wings, Chicago Blackhawks and New York Rangers — the 
Original Six from 1942 to 1967.
At that time, it was easy for a kid to know the stats of every player “by heart.” The hockey cards that we traded with each other came packaged with terrible tasting bubble-gum but the full colour, action cards had each player’s current stats on the reverse side. After memorizing the data (writing it down in a notebook would have been simpler), we traded cards with our friends in pursuit of having a complete set before the annual player trades took place.
Now, I am more interested in how players stay motivated when they are trailing at the mid-point of a game. Yes, I’m that guy who gets on the band wagon during any year-end series or “big game” while playing Backgammon on my iPad. They have reached the pinnacle of their sporting profession and have the skills, bank accounts and perks to prove their status. But what makes them rally when they are losing? An analysis of 18,000 National Basketball Association games over a 15-year period revealed that teams with a six-point lead at halftime had an 80 percent probability of winning the game. So, what’s the point of coming out of the dressing room when you are losing? Sure, there are outliers — teams that have overcome the six-point halftime deficit to win the game — but the statistical odds are what they are.
There is an exception. The same study revealed that teams that were behind by one point at halftime had a better chance of winning the game than if they were up by one. These teams won more than 58% of the time and the data demonstrated that being down by one point at halftime was equivalent to being ahead by two points. BTW, this phenomenon has been replicated successfully in the lab with real people in an effort to determine causation versus correlation. The lesson is clear. If we think that we are behind our opponent, we will exert more effort to win. It’s the psychology of mid-points. The legendary basketball coach, Dean Smith, talked to his team at halftime when they were behind by one point. “We’re in great shape,” he told his players. I’d rather be in our shoes than theirs. We are exactly where we want to be.”
Elite golfers like Justin Thomas or Rory McIlroy are reluctant to look at the leaderboard while entering the back nine because they prefer to play from behind regardless of their position on the board. NHL coaches talking to the press after losing the second straight game in their quest for the Stanley Cup are famous for showing more confidence than if they had won the two games. That’s consistent with the clichés related to mid-points such as, “It’s not over until it’s over.”
Daniel H. Pink in his book, When, explains that we need to be aware of the mid-points in our lives by not making them invisible. The recognition of when you are provides an opportunity to wake up rather than roll over. This is the better place to be because, statistically and psychologically, imagining that you are behind (by a little) can ignite the motivation and sense of urgency that you need to succeed.
Oh, about those hockey cards that I collected when I was a kid. The pristine hockey cards that would be worth a small fortune today. The cards were trashed by my mother along with my classic comic book collection within a month after I went to university. The horror.